Handicapping the 2006 Congressional Elections
By Walter Gorski
AOPA Government Affairs Department

Election Day is about six months away—an eternity in political terms. So handicapping the upcoming election to determine who will control the Congress in 2007 is difficult.
 
Nevertheless, O&P professionals must pay close attention to the elections and get involved now to help protect the field in the future.

Bad for Republicans
Right now, the political landscape does not bode well for Republicans. A poll released at the beginning of April showed the president’s poll numbers hitting an all-time low—36 percent approve of the president’s job performance.

But the outlook for congressional Republicans is even worse. According to the same poll, only 30 percent of the public approves of the Republicans’ performance.

And it gets even worse for Republicans. When asked who should control Congress, by a margin of 49 to 33 percent, the public would prefer Democrats. This is the largest lead Democrats have ever held over Republicans in this generic type of polling.

Polling is an inexact science, and as I mentioned above, there is a very long time before the elections. Much can happen in 180 days. Yet this information has Republicans very concerned.

If Democrats were to take control of the House of Representatives or the Senate, it would mean the end of the president’s legislative agenda and would open the door to widespread investigation of the president on the reasons for going to war in Iraq or warrantless wiretapping, just to name a few possibilities.
 
Democrats have not forgotten the tactics Republicans used against President Clinton on matters such as the Lewinsky affair or Whitewater in order to derail his legislative agenda and make political gains.

Value of incumbency
On the other hand, incumbency has significant advantages. While public approval of Congress is low, most believe that their members of Congress are doing a good job. The late Speaker of the House of Representatives Thomas “Tip” O’Neill (D-Mass.) once said “All politics is local.” These sentiments clearly play to the Republicans’ advantage. It is also far easier to raise campaign funds as an incumbent to fight off any challengers.

Moreover, there are not a huge number of competitive congressional elections this fall. Democrats need a net gain of six seats in the Senate in order to take control of that body; a net gain of 15 seats is needed by Democrats in the House to take control. A tall order by any measure. Democrats would have to win all their seats up for re-election and beat a number of other established incumbents, as well.

As the veteran political analyst Charles Cook of the Cook Political Report recently said, Republicans can withstand the surge from a Category 1, 2, or 3 storm but probably can’t withstand a Category 4 or 5 storm.

Outlook
In presidential years, only about 50 percent of the electorate vote. In off-year elections, such as this one, only about one-third of registered voters go to the polls. The bottom line is that this election will be decided by the political party which can energize its base and get its voters to the polls.

While it is almost a certainty that lawmakers will not tackle Medicare issues this year, 2007 is likely to be a busy and hectic year as lawmakers look to ways to control Medicare spending.

One lawmaker recently told AOPA that associations must remain actively engaged this year, educating and informing lawmakers of key issues important to their respective professions. The lawmaker added that if interest groups wait until next year, it will be too late to get involved in Medicare reform efforts.

AOPA is heeding this warning and is actively engaged this year to protect the future of the profession. We urge you to become engaged, too.

House Ways & Means Chairman Set to Retire After five years at the helm of the House Ways & Means Committee and over 25 in Congress, Chairman Bill Thomas (R-Calif.) has announced his intention to retire at the conclusion of the year.   The Committee on Ways & Means is one of the most powerful and prestigious panels in Congress because of the breadth of issues that are decided by committee members. The committee oversees all tax, trade, Social Security and Medicare policy addressed by Congress. In this capacity, the actions of the committee are of tremendous importance to the O&P profession. Chairman Thomas’ announcement has set off a flurry of speculation as to who will succeed him as Ways & Means chair. Should the Republicans maintain their majority in the House after the coming election, candidates most frequently mentioned as potential successors to Thomas include Reps. Jim McCrery (R-La.), Clay Shaw (R-Fla.), and Nancy Johnson (R-Conn.). McCrery, believed by some to be the frontrunner for the Ways & Means gavel, currently serves as chair of the Ways & Means Subcommittee on Social Security. He is a close ally of Thomas and a proponent of privatizing certain aspects of the Medicare program, a potential concern for all health-related professions, including O&P. Shaw is currently the Chairman of the Ways & Means Subcommittee on Trade, and served previously as chair of the Social Security Subcommittee. Shaw has long been an advocate of overhauling Social Security, and is at the forefront of the movement to create private Social Security accounts. Johnson is the candidate with the most significant involvement in health care issues, serving as Chair of the Ways & Means Subcommittee on Health. Johnson has long been a resource on O&P issues; AOPA hosted an event in her honor on April 5. If Democrats seize control of the House of Representatives, Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) will become chairman of the committee. Rep. Pete Stark (D-Calif.) would assume the chairmanship of the Ways and Means Health Subcommittee again, a position he held between 1985 and 1994. AOPA hosted an event for Congressman Stark on April 6. Whoever is chosen to replace Thomas as Ways & Means chair will undoubtedly play a significant role in deciding the short-term future of our nation’s health care system. AOPA is well positioned to work with either the Democrats or Republicans in line for the committee’s top spot.

Walter Gorski is the director of legislative and regulatory affairs for the American Orthotic & Prosthetic Association (AOPA).

Through government relations efforts, AOPA works to influence policies affecting the future of the O&P profession.

Questions? Call (571) 431-0876 ext. 209 or visit www.AOPAnet.org.